Data Zone
Taxonomic source(s)
AERC TAC. 2003. AERC TAC Checklist of bird taxa occurring in Western Palearctic region, 15th Draft. Available at: http://www.aerc.eu/DOCS/Bird_taxa_of_the_WP15.xls.
Cramp, S. and Simmons, K.E.L. (eds). 1977-1994. Handbook of the birds of Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The birds of the western Palearctic. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
del Hoyo, J., Collar, N.J., Christie, D.A., Elliott, A. and Fishpool, L.D.C. 2014. HBW and BirdLife International Illustrated Checklist of the Birds of the World. Volume 1: Non-passerines. Lynx Edicions BirdLife International, Barcelona, Spain and Cambridge, UK.
| Critically Endangered | Endangered | Vulnerable |
|---|---|---|
| - | A3cd+4cd | A2bcd+3cd+4cd |
| Year | Category | Criteria |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Endangered | A3cd+4cd |
| 2017 | Vulnerable | A3cd+4cd |
| 2016 | Vulnerable | A2cd+3cd+4cd |
| 2012 | Vulnerable | A2cd+3cd+4cd |
| 2008 | Vulnerable | A2c; A3c; A4c |
| 2004 | Vulnerable | |
| 2000 | Vulnerable | |
| 1996 | Vulnerable | |
| 1994 | Vulnerable | |
| 1988 | Threatened |
| Migratory status | full migrant | Forest dependency | does not normally occur in forest |
| Land-mass type |
continent |
Average mass | - |
| Estimate | Data quality | |
|---|---|---|
| Extent of Occurrence (breeding/resident) | 15,300,000 km2 | medium |
| Extent of Occurrence (non-breeding) | 14,400,000 km2 | medium |
| Severely fragmented? | no | - |
| Estimate | Data quality | Derivation | Year of estimate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population size | 29600-33000 mature individuals | medium | estimated | 2023 |
| Population trend | decreasing | medium | estimated | 2004-2040 |
| Rate of change over the past 10 years/3 generations (longer of the two periods) | 28-49% | - | - | - |
| Rate of change over the future 10 years/3 generations (longer of the two periods) | 50-79% | - | - | - |
| Rate of change over the past & future 10 years/3 generations (longer of the two periods) | 49-75% | - | - | - |
| Generation length | 11.8 years | - | - | - |
| Number of subpopulations | 5-100 | - | - | - |
| Percentage of mature individuals in largest subpopulation | 70-80% | - | - | - |
Population justification: Two revised estimates of the global population were published in 2022. Alonso and Palacín (2022) collated national estimates from across the species’ range, producing a total of 30,693–35,402 birds. Kessler (2022) did the same but included the results of more recent surveys in Asia and elsewhere, reporting a total of 29,060–32,449 birds. Combining these sources by using the most recent national estimates from them both, and an even more recent estimate from Morocco (Alonso et al. 2023), yields a figure of 29,638–33,027, rounded to a range of 29,600-33,000.
A breakdown of this total includes (broadly from west to east): for the western subspecies O. t. tarda, 72-78 birds in Morocco in 2022 (Alonso et al. 2023), 939 birds in Portugal in 2021 (Instituto da Conservação da Natureza e das Florestas and Liga para a Protecção da Natureza 2018 [unpublished data]), 22,000-24,000 birds in Spain in 2019 (Palacín and Alonso 2021), 315 birds in Germany in 2022 (LIFE Great Bustard 2022), 634 birds in West Pannonia (which here includes Austria, western Hungary, and Slovakia) in 2022 (LIFE Great Bustard 2022), 1,495 individuals in East Pannonia (which here includes central and eastern Hungary, Romania and Serbia) in 2022 (LIFE Great Bustard 2022), 559-780 individuals in Türkiye in 2019 (Özgencil et al. 2022), 33-35 birds in Iran in 2016-2017 (Abdulkarimi 2022), 225-300 birds in Ukraine in 2015 (Andryushchenko 2009, Beskaravainyi 2015 per Kessler 2022), 1,870 birds in European Russia in 2021 (Oparina and Oparin 2021), 179-364 birds in Central Asia (including Asian Russia and Kazakhstan) in 2014-2016 (Kornev and Gavlyuk 2019, Rustamov 2022, Kashkarov et al. 2022, Muratov and Talbonov 2022, Kulagin 2022, Shakula et al. 2022a, Koshkin et al. 2022, Kessler and Bidashko 2022, Nefedov 2022, per Kessler 2022), and 17 individuals in north-west China in 2016 (Wang and Yang 2022); for the eastern subspecies O. t. dybowskii, 1,300-2,200 individuals across its range, which includes Mongolia, south-east Russia and northeast China (Kessler et al. 2021, Kessler and Batbayar 2023). Based on the above numbers, the species' Spanish population currently represents c. 74% of its global population size.
A reintroduction scheme is underway in the United Kingdom, with 67 individuals in 2021 (Kessler et al. 2021) and almost 100 individuals in 2022 (Great Bustard Group 2023), but this is currently considered a managed subpopulation and does not form part of the assessed population as yet.
Trend justification: Substantial evidence exists documenting the historical decline and disappearance of this species across much of its range, with recent data collated by Alonso and Palacín (2022) and Kessler (2022) confirming that this decline is continuing. Alonso and Palacín (2022) estimated that the global population declined by c. 34% (30–38%) between 2005 and 2018, with an annual rate of -3.23%; declines were highest in China and European Russia (89% and 72%, respectively), with significant declines also seen in Portugal (-50%), and in Spain (-28%). The latter was noted as an important change compared to previous national trend data which previously estimated the population in the country as either stable to slightly increasing. Repeating this analysis including the more updated national population estimates from Kessler (2022) yields a decline of c. 36% (25–46%) between 2004 and 2019, which equates to an annual decline of c. 3% (2–4%). Extrapolating this rate of decline to three generation lengths suggests a decrease of c. 65% (49–75%), however, these calculations assume that the rate of decline has been constant over time, which is not the case for this species. Similarly, in the species’ major eastern European stronghold, population declines accelerated to reach a rate of reduction of c. 70% (Andryushchenko 2020, Oparin and Oparina 2020).
The accelerating rate of decline in recent years means it is not justifiable to backcast current rates of decline into the past, but it is reasonable to extrapolate them into the future. As such, a rate of population reduction of 49–75% is assigned to the three-generation period between 2004 and 2040, and the range of 25-46% is kept for the past three generations.
Key threats, such as increased habitat degradation, fragmentation, and loss due to land use change and agricultural expansion and intensification, as well as unintentional poisoning and collisions with powerlines, have or are expected to increase in both Europe and Asia, and could be compounded by climate change (Kessler 2021, Kessler and Collar 2022, Kashkarov et al. 2023, Silva et al. 2023). Illegal hunting also remains a potent threat (Kessler 2022, Özgencil et al. 2022). Accordingly the current rate of decline is projected to continue into the future, at a rate of 50-79% over three generations.
| Country/Territory | Presence | Origin | Resident | Breeding visitor | Non-breeding visitor | Passage migrant |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | possibly extinct | native | yes | |||
| Albania | extant | vagrant | ||||
| Algeria | extinct | uncertain | ||||
| Armenia | extant | native | yes | |||
| Austria | extant | native | yes | |||
| Azerbaijan | extant | native | yes | |||
| Belarus | extinct | native | ||||
| Belgium | extant | vagrant | ||||
| Bulgaria | possibly extinct | native | yes | |||
| China (mainland) | extant | native | yes | yes | yes | yes |
| Croatia | extant | vagrant | yes | |||
| Cyprus | extant | vagrant | ||||
| Czechia | extant | native | yes | |||
| Denmark | extant | vagrant | ||||
| Egypt | extant | vagrant | ||||
| Finland | extant | vagrant | ||||
| France | extant | vagrant | yes | |||
| Georgia | extant | native | yes | |||
| Germany | extant | native | yes | |||
| Gibraltar (to UK) | extant | vagrant | ||||
| Greece | extant | vagrant | yes | |||
| Hungary | extant | native | yes | |||
| Iran, Islamic Republic of | extant | native | yes | |||
| Iraq | extant | native | yes | |||
| Ireland | extant | vagrant | ||||
| Israel | extant | vagrant | yes | |||
| Italy | extant | vagrant | yes | |||
| Japan | extant | vagrant | yes | |||
| Kazakhstan | extant | native | yes | yes | yes | |
| Kyrgyzstan | extant | native | yes | yes | ||
| Latvia | extant | vagrant | ||||
| Lebanon | extant | vagrant | yes | |||
| Luxembourg | extant | vagrant | ||||
| Malta | extant | vagrant | ||||
| Moldova | extant | native | yes | |||
| Mongolia | extant | native | yes | yes | ||
| Morocco | extant | native | yes | |||
| Myanmar | extinct | vagrant | ||||
| Netherlands | extant | vagrant | ||||
| North Korea | extant | vagrant | yes | |||
| North Macedonia | extant | vagrant | yes | |||
| Pakistan | extant | vagrant | ||||
| Poland | extinct | native | yes | |||
| Portugal | extant | native | yes | |||
| Romania | extant | native | yes | |||
| Russia | extant | native | yes | |||
| Russia (Asian) | extant | native | yes | |||
| Russia (Central Asian) | extant | native | yes | |||
| Russia (European) | extant | native | yes | |||
| Saudi Arabia | extant | vagrant | yes | |||
| Serbia | extant | native | yes | yes | ||
| Slovakia | extant | native | yes | |||
| South Korea | extant | vagrant | yes | |||
| Spain | extant | native | yes | |||
| Sweden | extinct | vagrant | yes | |||
| Switzerland | extinct | vagrant | yes | |||
| Syria | possibly extinct | native | yes | |||
| Tajikistan | extant | native | yes | |||
| Tunisia | extant | vagrant | ||||
| Türkiye | extant | native | yes | yes | yes | |
| Turkmenistan | extant | native | yes | yes | ||
| Ukraine | extant | native | yes | yes | ||
| United Kingdom | extinct | native | yes | |||
| Uzbekistan | extant | native | yes | yes |
| Habitat (level 1) | Habitat (level 2) | Importance | Occurrence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial/Terrestrial | Arable Land | major | non-breeding |
| Artificial/Terrestrial | Arable Land | major | breeding |
| Artificial/Terrestrial | Pastureland | suitable | non-breeding |
| Artificial/Terrestrial | Pastureland | suitable | breeding |
| Forest | Temperate | suitable | breeding |
| Grassland | Temperate | major | non-breeding |
| Grassland | Temperate | major | breeding |
| Altitude | 0 - 1800 m | Occasional altitudinal limits |
| Threat (level 1) | Threat (level 2) | Impact and Stresses | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture & aquaculture | Annual & perennial non-timber crops - Agro-industry farming | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Majority (50-90%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Medium Impact: 6 | ||||||
|
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| Agriculture & aquaculture | Livestock farming & ranching - Agro-industry grazing, ranching or farming | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Majority (50-90%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Medium Impact: 6 | ||||||
|
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| Agriculture & aquaculture | Livestock farming & ranching - Small-holder grazing, ranching or farming | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Minority (<50%) | Negligible declines | Low Impact: 4 | ||||||
|
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| Agriculture & aquaculture | Wood & pulp plantations - Scale Unknown/Unrecorded | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Minority (<50%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Low Impact: 5 | ||||||
|
|||||||||
| Biological resource use | Hunting & trapping terrestrial animals - Intentional use (species is the target) | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Minority (<50%) | Rapid Declines | Medium Impact: 6 | ||||||
|
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| Biological resource use | Hunting & trapping terrestrial animals - Unintentional effects (species is not the target) | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Minority (<50%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Low Impact: 5 | ||||||
|
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| Biological resource use | Logging & wood harvesting - Unintentional effects: (subsistence/small scale) [harvest] | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Minority (<50%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Low Impact: 5 | ||||||
|
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| Climate change & severe weather | Droughts | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Majority (50-90%) | Rapid Declines | Medium Impact: 7 | ||||||
|
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| Climate change & severe weather | Storms & flooding | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Minority (<50%) | Causing/Could cause fluctuations | Low Impact: 5 | ||||||
|
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| Climate change & severe weather | Temperature extremes | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Majority (50-90%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Medium Impact: 6 | ||||||
|
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| Energy production & mining | Renewable energy | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Majority (50-90%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Medium Impact: 6 | ||||||
|
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| Human intrusions & disturbance | Recreational activities | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Majority (50-90%) | Negligible declines | Low Impact: 5 | ||||||
|
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| Human intrusions & disturbance | Work & other activities | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Minority (<50%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Low Impact: 5 | ||||||
|
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| Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases | Invasive non-native/alien species/diseases - Unspecified species | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Minority (<50%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Low Impact: 5 | ||||||
|
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| Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases | Problematic native species/diseases | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Majority (50-90%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Medium Impact: 6 | ||||||
|
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| Natural system modifications | Fire & fire suppression - Increase in fire frequency/intensity | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Minority (<50%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Low Impact: 5 | ||||||
|
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| Pollution | Agricultural & forestry effluents - Herbicides and pesticides | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Majority (50-90%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Medium Impact: 6 | ||||||
|
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| Pollution | Agricultural & forestry effluents - Type Unknown/Unrecorded | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Minority (<50%) | Negligible declines | Low Impact: 4 | ||||||
|
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| Residential & commercial development | Commercial & industrial areas | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Minority (<50%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Low Impact: 5 | ||||||
|
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| Residential & commercial development | Housing & urban areas | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Unknown | Causing/Could cause fluctuations | Unknown | ||||||
|
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| Transportation & service corridors | Roads & railroads | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Minority (<50%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Low Impact: 5 | ||||||
|
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| Transportation & service corridors | Utility & service lines | Timing | Scope | Severity | Impact | ||||
| Ongoing | Majority (50-90%) | Slow, Significant Declines | Medium Impact: 6 | ||||||
|
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| Purpose | Scale |
|---|---|
| Food - human | subsistence, national |
| Pets/display animals, horticulture | international |
| Sport hunting/specimen collecting | subsistence, national, international |
Recommended citation
BirdLife International (2024) Species factsheet: Great Bustard Otis tarda. Downloaded from
https://datazone.birdlife.org/species/factsheet/great-bustard-otis-tarda on 27/12/2024.
Recommended citation for factsheets for more than one species: BirdLife International (2024) IUCN Red List for birds. Downloaded from
https://datazone.birdlife.org/species/search on 27/12/2024.