• Summary
• Text account
• Data table and detailed info
• Distribution map
• Reference and further resources

Taxonomic source(s)
del Hoyo, J., Collar, N.J., Christie, D.A., Elliott, A., Fishpool, L.D.C., Boesman, P. and Kirwan, G.M. 2016. HBW and BirdLife International Illustrated Checklist of the Birds of the World. Volume 2: Passerines. Lynx Edicions and BirdLife International, Barcelona, Spain and Cambridge, UK.

Red List criteria met

Critically Endangered	Endangered	Vulnerable
-	C2a(ii)	B1ab(ii,iii,v); C2a(ii); D2

Red List history

Year	Category	Criteria
2021	Endangered	C2a(ii)
2016	Critically Endangered	C2a(ii)
2013	Critically Endangered	C2a(ii)
2012	Critically Endangered	C2a(ii)
2011	Critically Endangered	C2a(ii)
2008	Not Recognised
2004	Not Recognised
2000	Not Recognised
1994	Not Recognised
1988	Not Recognised

Migratory status	not a migrant	Forest dependency	medium
Land-mass type		Average mass	-

	Estimate	Data quality
Extent of Occurrence (breeding/resident)	8,200 km2	medium
Number of locations	1	-
Severely fragmented?	no	-

	Estimate	Data quality	Derivation	Year of estimate
Population size	2400-8400 mature individuals	good	estimated	2021
Population trend	decreasing	poor	inferred	-
Generation length	3.42 years	-	-	-
Number of subpopulations	1	-	-	-
Percentage of mature individuals in largest subpopulation	100%	-	-	-

Population justification:

Point count surveys following a distance sampling design in northern North Andros estimated a population of c. 1,200-2,800 mature individuals in the study area (Rowley et al. 2021). The study site included the largest area of pine forest on Andros, which was found to be the species’ preferred habitat (Rowley et al. 2021). These forests may represent around 30-50% of good pine forest habitat present on Andros and may hold a large proportion of the global population, as other pine forests are small, patchy and likely not used as much by the species (J. Antalffy and K. Omland pers. comm. 2021). Tentatively, it is assumed that global population is 2-3 times higher than the estimate for the study site in North Andros (J. Antalffy and K. Omland pers. comm. 2021) and is therefore here placed in the band 2,400-8,400 mature individuals.
The species has been extirpated from Abaco and now only occurs on Andros. Its ability to use a variety of habitats suggests that all individuals may get in contact with each other, and it is therefore assumed that the species forms a single subpopulation.

Trend justification: The species is thought to undergo a continuing decline due to the combined effects of predation by invasive species, nest parasitism by Shiny Cowbirds and the loss and degradation of its preferred pine forest habitat through the impacts of hurricanes and subsequent saltwater inundations, as well as through clearance for agriculture.
The rate of decline has not been quantified, but it is considered unlikely to exceeded 30% over the past three generations (10.3 years; Bird et al. 2020). The rate of decline may however increase rapidly in the future, as the species and its habitat are at high risk of hurricanes and storm-surge flooding. The intensity, and probably the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic are projected to increase with climate change (see e.g., Knutson et al. 2010; Walsh et al. 2016; Hall and Kossin 2019). While pine forests show resilience to storms, they are very sensitive to flooding and saltwater inundation and may take decades to recover (B. Watson pers. comm. 2021). Potentially severe storms and flooding on Andros in the near future may prove detrimental for the species and its habitat and increase the rate of decline considerably.

Country/Territory	Presence	Origin	Resident	Breeding visitor	Non-breeding visitor	Passage migrant
Bahamas	extant	native	yes

Country/Territory	IBA Name
Bahamas	Driggs Hill to Mars Bay
Bahamas	Mangrove Cay
Bahamas	Owenstown
Bahamas	Red Bays
Bahamas	San Andros Pond
Bahamas	Stafford Creek to Andros Town

Habitat (level 1)	Habitat (level 2)	Importance	Occurrence
Artificial/Terrestrial	Arable Land	suitable	resident
Artificial/Terrestrial	Plantations	suitable	resident
Forest	Subtropical/Tropical Dry	major	resident
Introduced vegetation		suitable	resident
Altitude		Occasional altitudinal limits

Threat (level 1)	Threat (level 2)	Impact and Stresses
Agriculture & aquaculture	Annual & perennial non-timber crops - Scale Unknown/Unrecorded	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Majority (50-90%)		Slow, Significant Declines		Medium Impact: 6
		Stresses Ecosystem conversion
Climate change & severe weather	Habitat shifting & alteration	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Future		Whole (>90%)		Slow, Significant Declines		Low Impact: 5
		Stresses Indirect ecosystem effects, Ecosystem conversion
Climate change & severe weather	Storms & flooding	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Past, Likely to Return		Majority (50-90%)		Rapid Declines		Past Impact
		Stresses Ecosystem degradation, Ecosystem conversion
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Invasive non-native/alien species/diseases - Canis familiaris	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Negligible declines		Low Impact: 4
		Stresses Reduced reproductive success, Species mortality
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Invasive non-native/alien species/diseases - Felis catus	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Majority (50-90%)		Causing/Could cause fluctuations		Medium Impact: 6
		Stresses Reduced reproductive success, Species mortality
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Invasive non-native/alien species/diseases - Molothrus bonariensis	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Negligible declines		Low Impact: 4
		Stresses Reduced reproductive success
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Invasive non-native/alien species/diseases - Pantherophis guttatus	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		No decline		Low Impact: 4
		Stresses Reduced reproductive success
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Invasive non-native/alien species/diseases - Procyon lotor	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Unknown		Minority (<50%)		Negligible declines		Unknown
		Stresses Species mortality
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Invasive non-native/alien species/diseases - Rattus rattus	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Negligible declines		Low Impact: 4
		Stresses Reduced reproductive success
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Invasive non-native/alien species/diseases - Unspecified species	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Negligible declines		Low Impact: 4
		Stresses Indirect ecosystem effects, Ecosystem degradation
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Problematic native species/diseases - Chilabothrus strigilatus	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Negligible declines		Low Impact: 4
		Stresses Reduced reproductive success, Species mortality
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Problematic native species/diseases - Cubophis vudii	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Negligible declines		Low Impact: 4
		Stresses Reduced reproductive success
Natural system modifications	Fire & fire suppression - Increase in fire frequency/intensity	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Majority (50-90%)		Slow, Significant Declines		Medium Impact: 6
		Stresses Ecosystem degradation, Reduced reproductive success

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Recommended citation
BirdLife International (2024) Species factsheet: Bahama Oriole Icterus northropi. Downloaded from https://datazone.birdlife.org/species/factsheet/bahama-oriole-icterus-northropi on 22/11/2024.
Recommended citation for factsheets for more than one species: BirdLife International (2024) IUCN Red List for birds. Downloaded from https://datazone.birdlife.org/species/search on 22/11/2024.