• Summary
• Text account
• Data table and detailed info
• Distribution map
• Climate Change maps
• Reference and further resources

Taxonomic source(s)
del Hoyo, J., Collar, N.J., Christie, D.A., Elliott, A. and Fishpool, L.D.C. 2014. HBW and BirdLife International Illustrated Checklist of the Birds of the World. Volume 1: Non-passerines. Lynx Edicions BirdLife International, Barcelona, Spain and Cambridge, UK.

Red List criteria met

Critically Endangered	Endangered	Vulnerable
A3bce+4bce	A2bce+3bce+4bce; B2ab(i,ii,iii,v)	A2bce+3bce+4bce; B2ab(i,ii,iii,v)

Red List history

Year	Category	Criteria
2024	Critically Endangered	A3bce+4bce
2020	Endangered	A2ace+3bce+4ace
2018	Endangered	A2ace+3ce+4ace
2016	Endangered	A2ace+3ce+4ace
2013	Endangered	A2ace+3ce+4ace
2012	Endangered	A2ace+3ce+4ace
2010	Endangered	A2a,c,e; A3c,e; A4a,c,e
2008	Vulnerable	A2a,c,e; A3c,e; A4a,c,e
2005	Vulnerable
2004	Vulnerable
2000	Vulnerable
1994	Lower Risk/Near Threatened
1988	Threatened

Migratory status	not a migrant	Forest dependency	does not normally occur in forest
Land-mass type	continent	Average mass	-

	Estimate	Data quality
Extent of Occurrence (breeding/resident)	449,000 km2	medium
Extent of Occurrence (non-breeding)	1,580,000 km2	medium
Number of locations	3	-
Severely fragmented?	no	-

	Estimate	Data quality	Derivation	Year of estimate
Population size	19800 mature individuals	good	estimated	2023
Population trend	decreasing	good	estimated	2019-2049
Rate of change over the past 10 years/3 generations (longer of the two periods)	78%	-	-	-
Rate of change over the future 10 years/3 generations (longer of the two periods)	70-98,92%	-	-	-
Rate of change over the past & future 10 years/3 generations (longer of the two periods)	84-91,88%	-	-	-
Generation length	10 years	-	-	-
Number of subpopulations	1	-	-	-
Percentage of mature individuals in largest subpopulation	100%	-	-	-

Population justification:

In 2023, the overall number of pairs was about 9,900 pairs, or 19,800 mature individuals (Sherley et al. 2024). This roughly equates to about 31,680 individuals in adult plumage based on the conversion factor of 3.2 for pairs to individuals (Crawford and Boonstra 1994). This compares to historic estimates of 141,000 pairs in 1956/57, 69,000 pairs in 1979/80, 57,000 pairs in 2004/05, 36,000 pairs in 2006/07 (Kemper et al. 2007a) and 17,700 pairs in 2019 (Sherley et al. 2020).

Trend justification: The population in Namibia declined from c. 12,000 pairs in 1978 (Kemper et al. 2007a) to c. 7,700 pairs in 1993 and c. 1,200 pairs in 2023. The decline in the Namibian population exceeds 80% in three generations (Sherley et al. 2024). The South African population declined from c.70,000 pairs in 1978/1979 (Shelton et al. 1984) to c. 36,700 pairs in 1993 and then to c. 8,750 pairs in 2023 (Sherley et al. 2024). The decline in South Africa has been estimated at ~77% in three generations (Sherley et al. 2024).

A Bayesian state-space model has been applied to nest count data made between 1979 and 2023 at 26 colonies (19 in South Africa and 7 in Namibia) to estimate the rate of decline in the population (Sherley et al. 2024). Together, these 26 colonies account for >99% of the total population. Using 20 years (2 generations) of data to project ten years of counts for a three-generation moving window resulted in a maximum rate of reduction of 87.5% (95% CI = 83.7–90.9%) for the three generations between 2001 and 2031, with all projections ending between 2028 and 2033 exceeding a reduction of 80%.

Trends in individual colonies show considerable variation in where these reductions are impacting the species. In Namibia, between 2015 (MFMR unpubl. data) and 2023 (Sherley et al. 2024) Mercury Island went from holding 2,646 pairs to zero; Ichaboe Island 488 pairs down to 13 pairs; Halifax Island 1,092 pairs down to 603 pairs; and Possession Island 1,205 pairs to 366 pairs. Between 2019 (Department of Environmental Affairs, SANParks and CapeNature unpubl. data) and 2023 (Sherley et al. 2024) in South Africa, St Croix Island went from holding 3,638 pairs to 712 pairs; Bird Island (Algoa Bay) 2,378 pairs to 1,722 pairs;  Stony Point 1,705 pairs to 1,200 pairs; Robben Island: 1,190 pairs down to 931 pairs; Dyer Island from 1,071 pairs to 903 pairs; and Simon's Town from 932 pairs to 845 pairs. At major colonies, only at Dassen Island has the colony increased, from 1,912 pairs to 2,037 pairs (Department of Environmental Affairs, SANParks and CapeNature unpubl. data, Sherley et al. 2024).

Country/territory distribution

Country/Territory	Presence	Origin	Resident	Breeding visitor	Non-breeding visitor	Passage migrant
Angola	extant	native			yes
Congo	extant	vagrant
Gabon	extant	vagrant
Mozambique	extant	vagrant
Namibia	extant	native	yes
South Africa	extant	native	yes

Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBA)

Country/Territory	IBA Name
Angola	Iona National Park
Namibia	Ichaboe Island
Namibia	Lüderitz Bay islands
Namibia	Mercury Island
Namibia	Namib-Naukluft Park
Namibia	Possession Island
South Africa	Algoa Bay Islands: Addo Elephant National Park
South Africa	Bird Island
South Africa	Boulders Beach
South Africa	Dassen Island
South Africa	Dyer Island Nature Reserve
South Africa	Robben Island
South Africa	West Coast National Park and Saldanha Bay islands

Habitats & altitude

Habitat (level 1)	Habitat (level 2)	Importance	Occurrence
Marine Coastal/Supratidal	Sea Cliffs and Rocky Offshore Islands	major	breeding
Marine Intertidal	Rocky Shoreline	major	breeding
Marine Intertidal	Shingle and/or Pebble Shoreline and/or Beaches	major	breeding
Marine Neritic	Pelagic	major	resident
Marine Oceanic	Epipelagic (0-200m)	major	resident
Shrubland	Temperate	major	breeding
Altitude	0 - 50 m	Occasional altitudinal limits

Threats & impact

Threat (level 1)	Threat (level 2)	Impact and Stresses
Biological resource use	Fishing & harvesting aquatic resources - Unintentional effects: (large scale) [harvest]	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Majority (50-90%)		Rapid Declines		Medium Impact: 7
		Stresses Indirect ecosystem effects, Species mortality
Biological resource use	Hunting & trapping terrestrial animals - Intentional use (species is the target)	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		No decline		Low Impact: 4
		Stresses Reduced reproductive success
Climate change & severe weather	Habitat shifting & alteration	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Majority (50-90%)		Rapid Declines		Medium Impact: 7
		Stresses Indirect ecosystem effects, Ecosystem degradation, Reduced reproductive success
Climate change & severe weather	Storms & flooding	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Negligible declines		Low Impact: 4
		Stresses Ecosystem degradation, Reduced reproductive success
Energy production & mining	Mining & quarrying	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Past, Unlikely to Return		Minority (<50%)		Rapid Declines		Past Impact
		Stresses Indirect ecosystem effects, Species disturbance, Ecosystem degradation, Reduced reproductive success
Human intrusions & disturbance	Work & other activities	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Past, Unlikely to Return		Minority (<50%)		Slow, Significant Declines		Past Impact
		Stresses Species disturbance
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Invasive non-native/alien species/diseases - Felis catus	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Negligible declines		Low Impact: 4
		Stresses Reduced reproductive success
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Problematic native species/diseases - Arctocephalus pusillus	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Slow, Significant Declines		Low Impact: 5
		Stresses Species disturbance, Competition, Species mortality
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Problematic native species/diseases - Larus dominicanus	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Majority (50-90%)		Negligible declines		Low Impact: 5
		Stresses Reduced reproductive success
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Problematic native species/diseases - Unspecified species	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Slow, Significant Declines		Low Impact: 5
		Stresses Species disturbance, Reduced reproductive success, Species mortality
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Viral/prion-induced diseases - Avian Influenza Virus (H5N1 subtype)	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Slow, Significant Declines		Low Impact: 5
		Stresses Species mortality
Pollution	Excess energy - Noise pollution	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Very Rapid Declines		Medium Impact: 7
		Stresses Species disturbance, Reduced reproductive success
Pollution	Industrial & military effluents - Oil spills	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Majority (50-90%)		Slow, Significant Declines		Medium Impact: 6
		Stresses Ecosystem degradation, Reduced reproductive success, Species mortality

Utilisation

Purpose	Scale
Pets/display animals, horticulture	national, international

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Recommended citation
BirdLife International (2024) Species factsheet: African Penguin Spheniscus demersus. Downloaded from https://datazone.birdlife.org/species/factsheet/african-penguin-spheniscus-demersus on 26/12/2024.
Recommended citation for factsheets for more than one species: BirdLife International (2024) IUCN Red List for birds. Downloaded from https://datazone.birdlife.org/species/search on 26/12/2024.