• Summary
• Text account
• Data table and detailed info
• Distribution map
• Climate Change maps
• Reference and further resources

Taxonomic note
Afrotis afra (del Hoyo and Collar 2014) was previously placed in the genus Eupodotis.

Afrotis (Eupodotis) afra and E. afraoides (Sibley and Monroe 1990, 1993) are retained as separate species contra Dowsett and Forbes-Watson (1993) who included afraoides as a subspecies of E. afra.

Taxonomic source(s)
del Hoyo, J., Collar, N.J., Christie, D.A., Elliott, A. and Fishpool, L.D.C. 2014. HBW and BirdLife International Illustrated Checklist of the Birds of the World. Lynx Edicions BirdLife International, Barcelona, Spain and Cambridge, UK.
del Hoyo, J.; Collar, N. J.; Christie, D. A.; Elliott, A.; Fishpool, L. D. C. 2014. HBW and BirdLife International Illustrated Checklist of the Birds of the World. Barcelona, Spain and Cambridge UK: Lynx Edicions and BirdLife International.

Red List criteria met

Critically Endangered	Endangered	Vulnerable
-	-	A4bc

Red List history

Year	Category	Criteria
2016	Vulnerable	A4bc
2013	Vulnerable	A4bc
2012	Least Concern
2009	Least Concern
2008	Least Concern
2004	Least Concern
2000	Lower Risk/Least Concern
1994	Lower Risk/Least Concern
1988	Lower Risk/Least Concern

Migratory status	not a migrant	Forest dependency	does not normally occur in forest
Land-mass type		Average mass	-

	Estimate	Data quality
Extent of Occurrence (breeding/resident)	254,000 km2	medium
Severely fragmented?	no	-

	Estimate	Data quality	Derivation	Year of estimate
Population size	unknown	-	-	-
Population trend	decreasing	-	suspected	2001-2032
Rate of change over the past & future 10 years/3 generations (longer of the two periods)	30-49%	-	-	-
Generation length	10.3 years	-	-	-

Population justification: The global population size has not been quantified, but the species has been described as uncommon to common (Hockey et al. 2005).

Trend justification: Comparison of data from the first and second Southern African Bird Atlas Projects (SABAP1, 1987–1992 and SABAP2, 2007–) indicates that the species declined in abundance in c.80% of its range between 1992 and 2010, and by over 30% during the study period, although the decline may have decelerated from 2008 onwards (Hofmeyr 2012). Occupancy modelling using the same data confirmed this, showing declines in abundance and range across most of its range. Comparison of results from an extensive terrestrial road census in the Karoo with those from a similar study in the 1980s also found a marked population decline (Shaw 2013, Shaw et al. 2015), and data from the Coordinated Avifaunal Roadcounts project also indicate declines between 1997 and 2010 in Overberg and Swartland (S. Hofmeyr and D. Young in litt. 2013). Subsequent analysis of the SABAP data to April 2013 indicates the situation may be more serious, with slight declines in the Eastern Cape population and declines in the Northern Cape and especially the Western Cape appearing to be more significant than previously suspected (S. Hofmeyr in litt. 2013). On-going population declines within the range 30-49% in 31 years (three generations) are suspected based on these analyses.

Country/Territory	Presence	Origin	Resident	Breeding visitor	Non-breeding visitor	Passage migrant
South Africa	extant	native	yes

Country/Territory	IBA Name

Habitat (level 1)	Habitat (level 2)	Importance	Occurrence
Artificial/Terrestrial	Arable Land	marginal	non-breeding
Artificial/Terrestrial	Pastureland	marginal	resident
Grassland	Subtropical/Tropical Dry	major	resident
Savanna	Dry	major	resident
Shrubland	Mediterranean-type Shrubby Vegetation	major	resident
Shrubland	Subtropical/Tropical Dry	major	resident
Altitude		Occasional altitudinal limits

Threat (level 1)	Threat (level 2)	Impact and Stresses
Agriculture & aquaculture	Annual & perennial non-timber crops - Agro-industry farming	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Majority (50-90%)		Rapid Declines		Medium Impact: 7
		Stresses Species disturbance, Ecosystem conversion
Climate change & severe weather	Habitat shifting & alteration	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Future		Whole (>90%)		Unknown		Unknown
		Stresses Indirect ecosystem effects, Ecosystem degradation
Human intrusions & disturbance	Work & other activities	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Majority (50-90%)		Slow, Significant Declines		Medium Impact: 6
		Stresses Species disturbance
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Problematic native species/diseases	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Negligible declines		Low Impact: 4
		Stresses Reduced reproductive success

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Recommended citation
BirdLife International (2024) Species factsheet: Southern Black Bustard Afrotis afra. Downloaded from https://datazone.birdlife.org/species/factsheet/southern-black-bustard-afrotis-afra on 23/12/2024.
Recommended citation for factsheets for more than one species: BirdLife International (2024) IUCN Red List for birds. Downloaded from https://datazone.birdlife.org/species/search on 23/12/2024.