Justification of Red List category
This species has a small range, but volcanic eruptions during the late 1990s and early 2000s caused a drastic population decline and extirpated it from all but two disjunct areas. Deposits of volcanic ash have seriously damaged the habitat of the remaining populations, and further deposits or an increased frequency of hurricanes could have devastating effects. The population trend has since stabilised or even increased, and the species has therefore assessed as Vulnerable.
Population justification
In 2012 the total population was estimated at 690 individuals (Oppel et al. 2014a). This estimate comprises 546 individuals in the Centre Hills, and 143 individuals in the South Soufrière Hills. This roughly equates to 460 mature individuals, with 364 mature individuals in the Centre Hills subpopulation and 95 mature individuals in the South Soufrière Hills subpopulation. The population has remained roughly stable since, despite some inter-annual fluctuations (Oppel et al. 2014b, Kitchener 2020).
Trend justification
Prior to 1995, this species was widespread across Montserrat. In that year however, volcanic activity began in the Soufrière Hills: A major eruption in 1996 caused a 60% decrease in range and population, with further eruptions in 2001 and 2003 causing heavy ash falls on large areas of the Centre Hills, destroying nests and curtailing breeding (Arendt et al. 1999; G. Hilton in litt. 2000, 2003; Hilton et al. 2003). In December 1997, the estimated population was c. 4,000 individuals, and intensive monitoring indicated declines by 40-50% in 1997-2003 (Arendt et al. 1999; G. Hilton in litt. 2000, 2003; Hilton et al. 2003).
The rapid declines noted between 1996 and 2003 have now ceased: In 2012 the population was estimated at c. 690 individuals (Oppel et al. 2014a), and monitoring data shows that the population is now overall stable, despite some fluctuations (S. Oppel in litt. 2015, Kitchener 2020). It is however noted that the population levels remain well below those of 1997. Population modelling projects a continuation of the stable trends or small increases up until 2028, though with considerable uncertainty relating to environmental and demographic stochasticity (Oppel et al. 2014b)