• Summary
• Text account
• Data table and detailed info
• Distribution map
• Reference and further resources

Taxonomic source(s)
del Hoyo, J., Collar, N.J., Christie, D.A., Elliott, A., Fishpool, L.D.C., Boesman, P. and Kirwan, G.M. 2016. HBW and BirdLife International Illustrated Checklist of the Birds of the World. Volume 2: Passerines. Lynx Edicions and BirdLife International, Barcelona, Spain and Cambridge, UK.

Red List criteria met

Critically Endangered	Endangered	Vulnerable
D	B1ab(iii); D	B1ab(iii); D1+2

Red List history

Year	Category	Criteria
2020	Critically Endangered	D
2018	Critically Endangered	D
2017	Critically Endangered	C2a(i,ii); D
2016	Critically Endangered	B1ab(i,ii,iii,iv,v);C2a(i,ii);D
2012	Critically Endangered	B1ab(i,ii,iii,iv,v);C2a(i,ii);D
2010	Critically Endangered	B1a+b(i,ii,iii,iv,v); C2a(ii); D1
2009	Critically Endangered	B1a+b(i,ii,iii,iv,v); C2a(ii); D1
2008	Critically Endangered
2004	Critically Endangered
2000	Critically Endangered
1994	Lower Risk/Near Threatened
1988	Lower Risk/Least Concern

Migratory status	not a migrant	Forest dependency	high
Land-mass type		Average mass	53 g

	Estimate	Data quality
Extent of Occurrence (breeding/resident)	150 km2	medium
Number of locations	1	-
Severely fragmented?	no	-

	Estimate	Data quality	Derivation	Year of estimate
Population size	1-49 mature individuals	poor	estimated	2000
Population trend	decreasing	poor	suspected	2000-2010
Generation length	2.78 years	-	-	-
Number of subpopulations	1	-	-	-
Percentage of mature individuals in largest subpopulation	100%	-	-	-

Population justification: Any remaining population is assumed to be tiny (numbering fewer than 50 individuals and mature individuals), given the low number of records during the past decade. A recent probabilistic assessment by Butchart et al. (2018), based on the probability of the species remaining extant in the face of ongoing threats and survey efforts intending to locate it, concluded that T. guttatum likely exceeds the threshold to be considered 'Possibly Extinct' and as such, despite only one unconfirmed sighting since 2004, the species likely remains extant with a tiny population.

Trend justification: The species is suspected to have declined extremely rapidly around the time of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. Since 1994-1995, when just four records were obtained from monthly survey visits, it has apparently had a tiny population. The paucity of recent records make it difficult to clearly ascertain the population trend, but any remaining population is tentatively suspected to be in decline.

Country/Territory	Presence	Origin	Resident	Breeding visitor	Non-breeding visitor	Passage migrant
Mexico	extant	native	yes

Country/Territory	IBA Name

Habitat (level 1)	Habitat (level 2)	Importance	Occurrence
Forest	Subtropical/Tropical Dry	major	resident
Forest	Subtropical/Tropical Moist Lowland	suitable	resident
Shrubland	Subtropical/Tropical Moist	major	resident
Altitude		Occasional altitudinal limits

Threat (level 1)	Threat (level 2)	Impact and Stresses
Climate change & severe weather	Habitat shifting & alteration	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Future		Whole (>90%)		Unknown		Unknown
		Stresses Indirect ecosystem effects, Ecosystem degradation
Climate change & severe weather	Storms & flooding	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Whole (>90%)		Very Rapid Declines		High Impact: 9
		Stresses Ecosystem degradation, Species mortality
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Invasive non-native/alien species/diseases - Boa constrictor	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Majority (50-90%)		Rapid Declines		Medium Impact: 7
		Stresses Species mortality
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Invasive non-native/alien species/diseases - Felis catus	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Majority (50-90%)		Rapid Declines		Medium Impact: 7
		Stresses Species mortality
Residential & commercial development	Tourism & recreation areas	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Slow, Significant Declines		Low Impact: 5
		Stresses Ecosystem degradation, Ecosystem conversion

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Recommended citation
BirdLife International (2024) Species factsheet: Cozumel Thrasher Toxostoma guttatum. Downloaded from https://datazone.birdlife.org/species/factsheet/cozumel-thrasher-toxostoma-guttatum on 22/11/2024.
Recommended citation for factsheets for more than one species: BirdLife International (2024) IUCN Red List for birds. Downloaded from https://datazone.birdlife.org/species/search on 22/11/2024.