• Summary
• Text account
• Data table and detailed info
• Distribution map
• Reference and further resources

Taxonomic source(s)
AERC TAC. 2003. AERC TAC Checklist of bird taxa occurring in Western Palearctic region, 15th Draft. Available at: http://www.aerc.eu/DOCS/Bird_taxa_of_the_WP15.xls.
Brooke, M. de L. 2004. Albatrosses and Petrels Across the World. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Christidis, L. and Boles, W.E. 2008. Systematics and Taxonomy of Australian Birds. CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, Australia.
del Hoyo, J., Collar, N.J., Christie, D.A., Elliott, A. and Fishpool, L.D.C. 2014. HBW and BirdLife International Illustrated Checklist of the Birds of the World. Volume 1: Non-passerines. Lynx Edicions BirdLife International, Barcelona, Spain and Cambridge, UK.
SACC. 2005 and updates. A classification of the bird species of South America. Available at: https://www.museum.lsu.edu/~Remsen/SACCBaseline.htm.

Red List criteria met

Critically Endangered	Endangered	Vulnerable
-	B2ab(v)	A2be+3be+4be; B2ab(v); D2

Red List history

Year	Category	Criteria
2019	Endangered	B2ab(v)
2018	Endangered	B2ab(v)
2016	Endangered	B2ab(v)
2012	Endangered	B2ab(v)
2010	Endangered	B2a+b(v)
2008	Endangered	B2a+b(v)
2007	Vulnerable
2006	Vulnerable
2004	Vulnerable
2000	Vulnerable
1996	Vulnerable
1994	Vulnerable
1988	Lower Risk/Least Concern

Migratory status	full migrant	Forest dependency	does not normally occur in forest
Land-mass type		Average mass	-

	Estimate	Data quality
Extent of Occurrence (breeding/resident)	23,300,000 km2	medium
Area of Occupancy (breeding/resident)	64 km2	good
Number of locations	2	-
Severely fragmented?	no	-

	Estimate	Data quality	Derivation	Year of estimate
Population size	1800000 mature individuals	medium	estimated	2001
Population trend	decreasing	poor	inferred	2012-2059
Rate of change over the past 10 years/3 generations (longer of the two periods)	30-49%	-	-	-
Rate of change over the future 10 years/3 generations (longer of the two periods)	30-49%	-	-	-
Rate of change over the past & future 10 years/3 generations (longer of the two periods)	30-49%	-	-	-
Generation length	15.6 years	-	-	-
Number of subpopulations	2	-	-	-
Percentage of mature individuals in largest subpopulation	99-100%	-	-	-

Population justification:

On Gough Island, Cuthbert (2004) estimated 1.8 million breeding pairs in 2001, suggesting a world population of around 5 million birds. The population size was re-estimated by Rexer-Huber et al. (2014), taking into account the occupancy rates of suitable burrows in 2010 and 2012. This new estimate indicates a population size of 860,000 pairs, varying between 630,000 and 1,100,000 pairs. Because occupancy rates varied interannually, the species’s total breeding area could only be estimated crudely, and burrow densities were assumed to be similar throughout the habitat. This estimate should, therefore, be treated with caution. 

Trend justification: Stochastic population models computing a breeding success of 24.7% and parameters estimated for other gadfly petrels (adult survival = 93%, immature survival = 79% and recruitment age = 6 years) suggest a population decline of 0.7% per annum (Wanless et al. 2012). This would equate to a decline of 28% over three generations (c. 47 years). However, given that breeding success seems to be less than 20% (Cuthbert and Hilton 2004, Wanless et al. 2012, Dilley et al. 2015) and that survival rates did not take into account predation by Subantarctic Skuas Catharacta antarctica and thus were probably over-estimated, the population might be decreasing at a faster rate. Therefore, declines are placed here in the range 30-49% over three generations.

Country/Territory	Presence	Origin	Resident	Breeding visitor	Non-breeding visitor	Passage migrant
Antarctica	extant	vagrant
Argentina	extant	native			yes
Brazil	extant	native		yes	yes
Falkland Islands (Malvinas)	extant	native			yes
Israel	extant	vagrant
Jordan	extant	vagrant
Namibia	extant	native			yes
South Africa	extant	native			yes
South Georgia & the South Sandwich Islands	extant	vagrant
St Helena (to UK)	extant	native		yes
Uruguay	extant	native			yes

Country/Territory	IBA Name
St Helena (to UK)	Gough Island
St Helena (to UK)	Tristan Island

Habitat (level 1)	Habitat (level 2)	Importance	Occurrence
Marine Neritic	Pelagic	major	breeding
Marine Neritic	Pelagic	major	non-breeding
Marine Oceanic	Epipelagic (0-200m)	major	breeding
Marine Oceanic	Epipelagic (0-200m)	major	non-breeding
Shrubland	Temperate	major	breeding
Altitude	50 - 300 m	Occasional altitudinal limits	(max) 700 m

Threat (level 1)	Threat (level 2)	Impact and Stresses
Biological resource use	Hunting & trapping terrestrial animals - Intentional use (species is the target)	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Past, Unlikely to Return		Minority (<50%)		Rapid Declines		Past Impact
		Stresses Species mortality
Climate change & severe weather	Storms & flooding	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Causing/Could cause fluctuations		Low Impact: 5
		Stresses Species mortality
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Invasive non-native/alien species/diseases - Mus musculus	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Whole (>90%)		Very Rapid Declines		High Impact: 9
		Stresses Reduced reproductive success
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Invasive non-native/alien species/diseases - Rattus exulans	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Negligible declines		Low Impact: 4
		Stresses Reduced reproductive success
Invasive and other problematic species, genes & diseases	Problematic native species/diseases - Catharacta antarctica	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Majority (50-90%)		Slow, Significant Declines		Medium Impact: 6
		Stresses Species mortality
Pollution	Excess energy - Light pollution	Timing		Scope		Severity		Impact
		Ongoing		Minority (<50%)		Negligible declines		Low Impact: 4
		Stresses Species mortality

Purpose	Scale
Food - human	subsistence, national

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Recommended citation
BirdLife International (2024) Species factsheet: Atlantic Petrel Pterodroma incerta. Downloaded from https://datazone.birdlife.org/species/factsheet/atlantic-petrel-pterodroma-incerta on 22/12/2024.
Recommended citation for factsheets for more than one species: BirdLife International (2024) IUCN Red List for birds. Downloaded from https://datazone.birdlife.org/species/search on 22/12/2024.